Housing market is strong ‘but there is an underlying weakness that needs to be resolved’

UK property price growth slowed marginally last month as the stamp duty holiday came to a near end, but a drop in the number of homes being put up for sale looks set to keep driving up prices, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey.

The industry survey shows that the residential property price balance fell to +68 in September from a downwardly revised +72 in August.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said: “Both price and rent expectations [are] close to series highs pointing to greater pressure on affordability at a time when money markets are sensing interest rate increases coming sooner rather than later.”

The UK property market appears to be strong on the surface but Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank believes that “there is an underlying weakness that needs to be resolved”.

He continued: “The imbalance between supply and demand is unsustainable and in many cases arises because prospective sellers are unable to find anywhere to buy themselves, creating a vicious circle of low supply. In some cases, they cannot even find properties to rent as a short-term option.

“There were 13 new buyers for every property listed in the UK in September. Over the last five years, the only time demand has exceeded supply to a greater extent was in January 2020, the first month of the short-lived Boris bounce.

“The imbalance is keeping upwards pressure on prices but, like many other parts of the economy, needs to resolve itself over the next six months to ensure greater stability in the UK housing market in 2022.”

Fears that the end of stamp duty holiday would mean a tapering off in demand have evidently been disproved with demand for properties high, despite rising prices, according to Peter Beaumont, CEO of The Mortgage Lender.

He said: “While the ratio of average house price to average salary has never been higher, potential buyers are seizing a window of opportunity while borrowing rates remain low- before the chancellor announces measures to balance the books and the Bank of England steps in with measures to counter rising inflation.”
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